Friday, October 31, 2008

Week 9 Picks


GAME OF THE WEEK

Patriots 20 @ Colts 24 (Sunday Night)

These aren't the powerhouses they were the past few years, but this game is still intriguing none the least. The Patriots have fought to hold onto the AFC East least despite losing their general for the season and the Colts have started extrememly slow and are looking to get healthy and back on track. Manning vs Cassell doesn't have the same cache as Manning vs. Brady, but the battle will be entertaining nonetheless. Expect Peyton to pick apart the Pats secondary, always a weakness but especially now with Rodney Harrison done for the season. Cassel and Kevin Faulk can keep this game close but Bob Sanders returning for the Colts defense should be the difference maker.


Jets 20 @ Bills 24
Everyone said Thomas Jones lost a step, then he exploded for 3 TD's against the Bengals, followed up by a 160 yard effort against the Raiders. The Chiefs were on deck and Thomas Jones looked like he was back BUT the Jets went with a pass heavy game plan for some reason and Jones only saw 14 carries. He scored, but barely got over 50 yards. Now he heads to Buffalo where the Bills will keep Jones in check and force the Jets to yet again be one dimensional. When that happens, INT's happen at an alarming rate. Trent Edwards should bounce back after his poorest game of the season last week and Lee Evans will test a very young Jets secondary all day.

Lions 15 @ Bears 28
I thought the Lions could have pulled off the upset last week at home facing a Redskins team that plays up or down to their opponents talent level, but they missed their chance and now head on the road to Chicago. I may have considered another upset here, but Kyle Orton has been playing too good to let that happen. (I can't believe I just typed that sentence)

Jaguars 23 @ Bengals 13
The Jags were shocked last week by the Browns at home and pay a visit to the other Ohio team who is in worse shambles. MJD and Fred Taylor have only enjoyed one really good game this year, but I think this week they can both succeed on the ground. Expect the Bengals players to be drowned in boos throughout this game.

Ravens 20 @ Browns 17
Joe Flacco looks like an unprepared rookie one week and successful starting QB the next. Heading to Cleveland, I think Flacco can finally string together back to back competent performances and keep the Ravens in this game. Jamal Lewis likes to play against his former mates, but the best way to beat the Ravens is through the air. Edwards and Winslow should be able to keep the Browns alive in what looks to be a close game until the end.
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Buccaneers 24 @ Chiefs 10
The Chiefs do play well at home (ask the Broncos) and Tyler Thigpen actually looked like a professional quarterback last week, but with no Larry Johnson yet again and a very good Bucs team coming into KC, they will be hard pressed to keep this one close. Expect a big day (finally) from Earnest Graham.

Texans 31 @ Vikings 24
You can beat the Vikings through the air and that's exactly what the Texans will be planning to do. Slaton will have some success on the edges for the Texans, but this game will be all about Schaub, AJ, Walters and Owen Daniels. On the other side of the ball, this is shaping up to be a break out game for Adrian Peterson who has played well this entire year but has yet to have an "AP" game.

Cardinals 34 @ Rams 14
The Rams score will go up roughly 10 points if SJAX actually plays, but Kurt Warner has to be giddy about this game the way he and his team have been playing this year. If anything, this will be a statement game from the Cardinals that they won't be taking anybody lightly.
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Packers 13 @ Titans 26
Aaron Rodgers has played extremely well the first half of the season, despite being a little banged up, and the Packers reward him with a hefty extension. Now he faces his toughest opponent of the year. I have a bad feeling about this one. The Titans are the leagues lone undefeated team and will not go 16-0 but they won't lose their first game at home.

Dolphins 30 @ Broncos 31
The Dolphins have found a passing game and that's going to happen when the opposing safeties are creeping up in the box to stop Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat. Mile High will be rocking in what looks like a shootout. The Broncos are coming off a bye and are rested, but the defense is a M*A*S*H unit and honestly, wasn't very good when healthy to begin with. Cutler is over his minor finger ailment after the bye week and with all four Denver running backs listed as questionable, the Broncos will lean on him and Marshall to get it done at home.

Cowboys 13 @ Giants 27
The Cowboys are a completely different team without Tony Romo and they are hoping they can get him back after next week's bye. The Giants defense bum rushed Ben Roethlisberger last week and poor Brad Johnson doesn't stand much of a chance this week especially since he's unable to hit Terrell Owens deep, and now doesn't have the dump off option with Jason Witten out. The Giants are on a roll and are happy to welcome a team at their crossroads to Giants stadium.

Falcons 21 @ Raiders 23
Everybody's favorite feel good story are the Atlanta Falcons. They have already surpassed expectations and Matt Ryan is on the cusp of becoming a reliable fantasy starter. This week though, they have to head out to the West Coast where the Raiders actually play pretty darn well. Fargas and Michael Bush are expected to get alot of action in this game with McFadden out with two cases of turf toe. JaMarcus is looking a little more comfortable every week and has found a dependable reciever in tight end Zach Miller. It will be a close game, but Janikowski will win it.

Eagles 23 @ Seahawks 10
The Eagles defense will take care of this game by themselves. The Seahawks are having trouble running the ball, throwing the ball, and kicking the ball. They're at home and the Eagles sometimes disappear on the road, but not this week. Expect good days from McNabb and Westy.

Steelers 14 @ Redskins 10 (Monday)
Portis is hurting, Moss may not be available and without those two, the Skins are dead in the water. Roethlisberger was knocked around like a rag doll against the Giants last week and shoud find a bit of relief against the Skins. Willie Parker is back and will be sharing the backfield with Mwelde Moore, plus the Steelers also get Santonio Holmes back to stretch the field. It will be a defensive battle, bu the Steelers will prevail in a big game on the road.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Start Em', Sit Em'

Start Em'

Kellen Winslow, TE CLE vs Ravens
What a couple of weeks in Cleveland?  They were left for dead, rebounded and shocked the Giants on Monday night, regressed a bit the following week, then grabbed a huge win on the road in Jacksonville.  In the middle of all this there was the Winslow fiasco and the unconfirmed, then confirmed staph infection, the unconfirmed "secondary" transmitted disease, the bad blood with the GM and some absent get well cards.  It was kind of all over the place.  All you need to know is Winslow is back and he will be more than motivated to make this a statement game.  He only had 2 catches for 14 yards in the Week 3 meeting in Baltimore, but he was targeted a whopping 13 times in that game.

Matt Jones, WR JAX @ Bengals
Jones recorded 117 yards and a TD on an Andre Johnson amount of targets, 16.  It appears as if Jones has pushed off his upcoming suspension at least by another week and that might be a great thing for Jaguar fans as well as fantasy owners because the guy is playing each game now like it's his last game.  

Kevin Faulk, RB NEP @ Colts
Sammy Morris is out again this week, Lamont Jordan is at practice in a limited fashion and..... just had a set back, BJGE is more of a novelty than a solid RB at this point so go with the trusted veteran with Kevin Faulk and watch him go for over 100 total yards and a TD again this week.

Tim Hightower, RB ARI @ Rams
This game sounds like it will be the "Kurt Warner Show" but the writing is smack dab on the center of the wall that Edge's days are dwindling in the desert.  Hightower's YPC is not comforting, but what can you do when you running the ball into the endzone from two yards out?  I expect Wisenhunt to give Hightower a longer look this week, plus, he'll still dominate the goal line carries regardless.

Ted Ginn Jr, WR MIA @ Broncos
Chad Pennington has been on a roll lately and much of the credit goes to the run game opening up the passing lanes.  Greg Camarillo and both tight ends (Fasano and Martin) have excelled at catching Pennington's short accurate passes, but one player is YACing all over those catches: Ted Ginn Jr who finally, finally! capitalized on his pre-season hype last week catching 7 balls and turning them into 175 yards.  The Broncos defense is, shall we say, not very good at stopping anybody, so expect a shootout in Denver and expect Ginn Jr to be a benefactor.


Sit Em'

Clinton Portis, RB WAS vs Steelers
Ok, you won't be sitting the top running back in fantasy, but right now Clinton Portis is wishing the Redskins bye was week 9 instead of week 10.  Portis has taken on an incredible workload and needs a pit stop bad, but his crew chief is pushing him to get in one more lap before he refuels.  Let's hope he doesn't bust a tire on Monday Night.  I would be very nervous if I were a Portis owner this Monday.

Ryan Grant, RB GBP @ Titans
Remember before the bye week when Ryan Grant finally broke 100 yards and scored his first TD of the season.  Your late second, early third round pick finally looked like the player you thought you drafted.  Then you checked the box score and realized it took him 31 carries to accomplish that first decent game.  31 carries against a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense.  Now you're thinking about starting him against the Titans?  Get ready for a 60 yard day, and that's if everything goes well.

Greg Jennings, WR GBP @ Titans
Well, I didn't want to put two Packers on this list because it will obviously tip my hand that I expect the Titans to remain undefeated, but be very wary of Jennings production this Sunday as you will be getting a front row seat of watching Cortland Finnegan all day.  He kept Reggie Wayne under wraps, he'll do the same job on Jennings.

Dallas Clark, TE IND vs Patriots
How many times do you think Belichick has played the tape from Monday night of Dallas Clark running free behind the Titans linebackers for his team this week?  A lot I bet.  I also bet Clark is kept under wraps and will have a let down came coming off his break out game last week.

Jamal Lewis, RB CLE vs Ravens
I know its tempting to start Jamal against his old team because he does seem to play well against them, but the Ravens front seven is playing some of the best football right now and the only way you can beat them is through the air.  Jamal will have better days, but leave him on the bench for this one.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Its Always Sunny in Philadephia!!!

Just a quick non-football note, congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans on being World Series Champions.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Waiver Wire Fodder

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1. Donnie Avery, WR STL
Let's face it, if he isn't already rostered he'll be gone with the top claim week, so unless you're the worst team in the league, you missed the boat. Torry Holt is a shell of his former self and is almost droppable at this point. Avery has back to back games with a TD and looks like the prime candidate to lead the Rams in receiving yards the rest of the way.




2. Shaun Hill, QB SF
I don't think we'll be seeing JTO anytime soon. Hill should be inserted as the starting QB after the bye and in three games late last season, he posted a 68% completion rate, a 101.3 QB rating, and a 5:1 TD:INT ratio. Why didn't he win the starting gig to start the year again? Oh, that's right, because Martz wouldn't be able to take 100% of the credit, only about 85% of it. Shame.

3. Kevin Faulk, RB NEP
Why did we all fall for the other guy? Was it the four names? It just sounded cool having "BenJarvus Ellis-Green" on your roster, didn't? Well, guess what, Kevin Faulk is much cooler and he has a 100 total yards and a TD to prove it. Sammy Jordan may come back eventually, but Faulk is the most valuable back to have in New England at the moment.

4. Kolby Smith, RB KC
Rookie Jamaal Charles may be out for a while with a high ankle sprain, LJ will miss yet another week and is reportedly facing an additional three game ban per John Clayton's best guess. Kolby can be the man in KC and would be stricly a matchup FLEX play, but grab him and see what he does in the coming weeks.

5. Ted Ginn Jr., WR MIA
Remember when Donnie Avery blew up two weeks ago and you thought, nah, I'll just wait and see if he does it again before I roster him. Umm, yeah, grab Ginn now. He caught 175 yards last week compared to 177 in his previous six, but crazier things have happened.

6. Maurice Morris, RB SEA
Julius Jones is a shell of his former shelf, which was ironically a shell of his younger self, which ironically, wasn't that good to begin with. Somebody has to run the ball in Seattle and now that Morris is back to being healthy, it should be him.

7. Seneca Wallace, QB SEA
We may not see Matt Hasselbeck until 2009. If you are in dire need of QB help, grab Seneca.
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8. Shaun Alexander, RB WAS
The Tiptoe Burglar strikes again! Ok, unless you're just super nervous about Clinton Portis' health you should probably ignore this waiver option since all signs are pointing to Portis playing this week and with a Week 10 bye on the horizon, Portis should get time to rest his aching body.

Monday, October 27, 2008

He Is, Who We Thought He Was

New 49ers Head Coach Mike Singletary gives his team a pep talk

Random Fantasy Thoughts: Week 8

GAME BALL
Brian Westbrook returned after injury plagued weeks and the bye to set a career high with 167 rushing yards. Along with 2 TD's (which should have been three if not for the usual goal stand woes of the Eagles) and 42 receiving yards, Westy's return was much welcomed.

EARLY WAIVER WIRE PRIORITY PICKUP
Donnie Avery was already on plenty of radars after his last two weeks, but it was hard to believe he could be a dependable starter. Well, 165 yards and a TD definitely quell those fears and may even make Marc Bulger startable in 2 QB leagues again.

MAYBE I'M GLAD I SOLD HIM HIGH AFTERALL
The Wildcat was cool and all, but Ronnie Brown only had 43 yards on 14 carries. From a RB1 that's not going to get it done, especially when Ricky Williams got the TD but only half the carries.

WHERE DID THAT COME FROM?
Ted Ginn Jr. grabbed 7 catches for 175 yards. That's 25 yards per catch. Wow.

WHEN DOES TONY ROMO COME BACK AGAIN?
Jason Witten: 1 catch, 8 yards, bruised ribs
Terrell Owens: 5 catches, 33 yards
Roy E. Williams: 2 catches, 10 yards (but one was for a TD)
Marion Barber: 31 touches, 100 total yards. Yikes.

CRYING FOR THE BALL DOESN'T ALWAYS WORK
Edgerrin James: 7 carries for 17 yards, 1 fumble

NEVER BENCH YOUR STUD:
Kurt Warner facing a Panthers secondary that shut down Drew Brees on the same field the week before: 381 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT chucking it 49 times. Doh!

DWILL VS JSTEW VIII
DeAngelo Williams wins it in a knockout: 123 total yards, 1 TD vs. 9 touches for 10 yards. DWill just ran with more passion and confidence the entire day and it looks like he should be getting the nod in your fantasy teams from this point on if you own both

LT2 OF OLD (INSTEAD OF LOOKING LIKE AN OLD LT2)
In London, LT2 looked like the best RB of yesteryear at times, 170 total yards, 1 TD

SHOOTOUT AT THE UK CORRAL
Both Philip Rivers and Drew Brees threw for nearly 350 yards and 3 TD's each.

JUST WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE BYE
Marques Colston bettered his 0 point performance last week by catching 2 balls for 56 yards, but here's hoping after the Saints bye, Colston returns to form

PROP 4: MY OWN WORST ENEMY
Should we really count 4th quarter comebacks from quarterbacks that single handily put their teams in the hole, only to save them in the end? I vote NO. Brett Favre: 3 INT's, 2 TD's and a fourth quarter comeback win against Tyler Thigpen.

THIRD QUARTERBACKS A CHARM?
Tyler Thigpen looked horrendous the last time out (and that's possibly an understatement), but this week he was 25 for 36, 280 yards, 2 TD's and no picks. Will this performance quiet the Culpepper talk in KC?

THAT'S IT?
Everybody expected Thomas Jones to have a career day against the lowly Chiefs run defense, but all he could muster was 54 yards and a TD on 14 carries. Leon Washington on the other hand touched the ball 6 times and scored twice.

CONCUSSION, SCHMOCUSSION
Laveraneus Coles shook off the cobwebs of last week and grabbed 7 balls for 64 yards and a TD

DYNASTY LEAGUERS REJOICE!
Roddy White had 113 yards and 2 TD's and the main attention of Matt Ryan all day

HAMSTRUNG
Santana Moss had a predictably huge day against the Lions, 140 yards and a TD while chipping in a punt return TD, but now his owners have to watch the injury reports closely this week as he left with a pulled hamstring late in the game.

A TD WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE, BUT THAT'S OK
Andre Johnson did all of the work snatching 11 catches for 143 yards but the TD's went to Kevin Walters and David Anderson.

LEAVE THEM WANTING MORE
In what will likely be his last game before he's suspended by the NFL, Matt Jones had a big day: 117 yards, 1 TD

SEE, WHAT HAD HAPPEN WAS
Fred Taylor and MJD combined, that's COMBINED for 54 rushing yards. Shaun Rogers had something to do with that.

I KNEW IT WAS GOING TO BE A DEFENSIVE BATTLE, BUT DAMN!
Ben Roethlisberger: 4 INT's, who cares what the rest of the numbers are
Brandon Jacobs: 47 yards on 18 carries
Plaxico Burress: 3 catches for 15 yards in 3 quarters of play

CAREER DAY NEVER TO BE DUPLICATED
Leonard Weaver of the Seahawks had 4 catches for 116 yards and 2 TD's

BARRY SANDERS AWARD (player that doesn't deserve the team he's on)
Frank Gore: 25 touches, 159 total yards

Friday, October 24, 2008

Blow Up or Blown Up: Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em

THE BLOW UP LIST

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, NYJ vs Chiefs
You don't need me to tell you the Chiefs run defense is poor, and nearly every start em, sit em article this week, and possibly for the rest of the season, will have the RB opponent for the Chiefs as a start em. Use Thomas Jones as a RB1 this week and Leon Washington as a FLEX.

Cedric Benson, CIN @ Texans
After one obvious selection, I have to toss in a not so obvious one. I know it looks crazy on paper, but Benson has actually been running hard for his new team. Now, that might just be a mirage since Chris Perry has looked so bad, but with Benson returning to Texas where the Texans wouldn't even give him a shot, I'd expect him to run with some rare fire and emotion.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis NEP vs STL
Lamont Jordan is out, Sammy Morris is out, Laurence Maroney is on IR. It's BGE time in NE. The undrafted former practice squader may only have this one chance to show what he can do and he luckily drew the Rams run defense this week. Kevin Faulk will dominate third down, but 20 carries for BGE is not out of the question.

Malcom Floyd, SDC vs Saints (in London)
The weather is probably not going to yield much in the passing game, but if it does, Floyd will be the man. In the last two weeks subbing for Chris Chambers, Floyd has recorded a TD catch and with Chambers out at least another week, I'd expect the same game.


THE BLOWN UP LIST (an ode to Emmitt Smith)

Eli Manning NYG @ Steelers
This game looks like a clash of two defenses which will make it tough for both offenses to get on track. The Steelers defense, especially at home, is nearly unbeatable and I predict Eli to be a turnover machine this Sunday

Brandon Jacobs NYG @ Steelers
Well, obviously I'm predicting the Steelers to win this game as I have Jacobs as my second player listed on the blown up list. Jacobs inclusion on the list has less to do with the Steelers run defense (which is tough) than it does with his current streak of TD's which will come to an end this week.

Brett Favre NYJ vs Chiefs
Favre could be without his two top targets this Sunday (Cotchery and Coles) but the Jets figure to keep the game plan on the ground regardless which will give Favre less chances to throw TD's (and more importantly less chances to throw INTs)

Kurt Warner ARI @ Panthers
A quarterback heavy Blown Up list this week. Warner is on fire, yes, but there's three things that make me wary of this Panthers game. 1 - The Cards have trouble playing affectively on the road. 2 - It's an early game traveling East for a West Coast team. 3 - The Panthers secondary shut down Drew Brees last week and anyone else this year. Stay away.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Week 8 Picks

Let's try to get back into the swing of things.

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Giants 13 @ Steelers 17
Brandon Jacobs has been on a tear the past two weeks, but the Steelers defense led by Harrison and Woodley will disrupt any kind of offensive flow the Giants will try to develop.  Expect Eli to be flustered into a few ill-fated throws and if Plax plays (which right now sounds like a big IF), his sideline tantrum last week will be just the tip of the iceberg.  On the other side, the Giants defense will slow down Willie Parker if he plays, but it's the secondary that the Steelers should be able to exploit the defending champions.  Roethlisberger will probably get knocked around some, but Ben has found a rhythm the week before and after the bye and I'd expect that to continue this week.

Raiders 13 @ Ravens 16
Oakland is coming off their surprising home win against the Jets last Sunday and now must criss cross the country for an away early game on the other coast. A good team would have trouble playing well under those circumstances, let alone a team like the Raiders. The Raiders are built on the running game and the Ravens are built to stop the run, so unless JaMarcus Russell makes that leap this week that all of Oakland is hoping he would have made already, things could get ugly in Baltimore. Of course, Joe Flacco can single handily keep this game close enough for the Raiders to pull off the upset, but in the end, the Ravens defense will prevail.

Cardinals 14 @ Panthers 27
Kurt Warner has no doubt found the fountain of youth leading the Cardinals to the NFC West lead, but now he faces a Panthers defense that shut down the hottest QB in the league last week in Drew Brees on the road, where the entire Cardinals team has struggled. Anquan Boldin appears set to return this week which will give Warner another much needed weapon to keep the game close. The Cardinals defense has improved, especially the front line, but they will have their hands full containing the two headed monster of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams

Buccaneers 24 @ Cowboys 13
The Cowboys are spiraling out of control and a loss at home to Tampa will send them further down the rabbits hole. Tony Romo won't be able to save their season until after the bye week at the earliest, so until then, every Sunday will be more of a soap opera than usual. Without their leader, the Cowboys are a team without an identity. The Bucs on the other hand, know exactly what they are. A team with a great defense, a good running game and a veteran QB leading the way. They are beginning to resemble that Super Bowl team more and more each week.

Redskins 19 @ Lions 20
Uh oh. The Redskins already fell for a trap game a couple of weeks ago losing to the Rams at home. Now it happens again on the road. Look, I know this is a huge leap of faith trying to predict the Lions first win, but the Lions have played with a bit of a spark since Orlovsky's taken over, Millen was fired, Roy Williams was traded, etc, etc. Rookie Kevin Smith appears to be getting prepared for a full load this week and Calvin Johnson is in sync. The Lions will reportedly not have a sell out this week for the first time in 7 years. The stars are aligning for an upset.

Bills 24 @ Dolphins 20
Trent Edwards vs. The WildCat Offense. Oddly enough, I'll take Trent Edwards and his nearly 70% completion rate. 69.7% to be exact. Amazing. The Bills are on a roll and are ready to beat a division foe on the road. It's the next logical step for them in what's shaping up to be "their year". The Dolphins are reeling from the Baltimore game last week and now must be questioning the validity of the Wildcat after the Ravens gave the rest of the league a playbook on how to stop it. I'm sure Soprano and company will try to find a few different wrinkles to the formation, but againts the Bills defense that shut down LT2 last week, that's a tall order.

Rams 20 @ Patriots 27
And it all comes crashing down for the Rams. Did you really think they were going to continue their winning ways. SJAX is nursing a quad injury he suffered toward the end of last weeks dominating performance in Big D, but all signs are tentatively pointing for him returning this week. The Pats on the other hand are coming off an equally huge win against the Broncos on Monday night, and while usually I downgrade a team coming off a short week, since the Pats stayed at home, they get the nod here.

Chargers 24 and Saints 17 @ London
I don't expect LT2 to suddenly play like the number 1 running back this week, but this game will be the Philip Rivers show as he'll pass on the Saints defense like everyone else has this year. Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd are more than enough to beat the Saints secondary. Drew Brees had his worst game of the year last week and should rebound, but without Reggie Bush, the Chargers know exactly where to concentrate their defensive efforts.

Chiefs 13 @ Jets 26
The starting wide recievers for the Jets this week might be Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney since the status of Cotchery and Coles at the moment are up in the air. It shouldn't matter a whole lot since Thomas Jones and Leon Washington should be doing most of the damage. I'd even look for Jesse Chatman to get in on the fun on a Chiefs run defense that has more holes than the plot from the Matrix. After losing two QB's last week to injured reserve, the Chiefs are rolling back out rookie Tyler Thigpen. Couple this with the second straight week of the suspension of LJ and there is very little doubt as to the outcome of this Sunday's game in Gotham.

Falcons 17 @ Eagles 27
I really like the Falcons and what they've been able to do this year with a rookie QB and a free agent RB starting for the first time in his career. The Falcons have a little trouble on the road as they're obviously still trying to learn how to win and this week run into an Eagles team coming off a bye and getting healthier.

Browns 10 @ Jaguars 31
When will the Brady Quinn Era begin? I'll take this game. The Browns are disarray following Kellen Winslow's medical tirade and heading into Week 8, the Browns have only played well one week. The Jags on the other hand have found their mojo (who coincidentally is Mo Jo) and will pound the running game relentlessly against the Browns at home where they are always tough to play.

Bengals 27 @ Texans 24
You know what, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't all that bad.  Sure, he's no Carson Palmer, but he's making Housh fantasy relevant, especially in PPR and even tossed a TD to Chad Johnson last week.  I'm not saying run out and grab him for your fantasy squad, but I can see the Bengals winning a game sooner or later.  It may even come this week against an underachieving Texans team that has recently come alive and may, just may take the Bengals for granted.  Andre Johnson of course can take the game over by himself, so we'll just have to see.

Seahawks 17 @ Niners 14
The Niners saw how a coaching change can positively affect a team with their division rival the Rams righting the ship under Jim Haslett.  The news broke early so they had to jump the gun before the Niners bye so the team should be in more turmoil due to the short week which should lead to an upsetting loss against the Seahawks.  Things will get worse before they get better in San Fran.  The Seahawks on the other hand are the Bad News Bears of the NFL and despite not having Hasselbeck last week, they were able to at least stay in the game with the Bucs.


Colts 20 @ Titans 31
Two weeks ago everyone thought the old Colts were back with their drubbing of the formidable Ravens defense, that evidently everyone forgot was decimated in the secondary so it shouldn't have come as a great surprise that they had trouble with a Charles Woodson led Packers defense.  Joseph Addai will most likely miss this one, which may be a good thing since the Titans aren't expected to let any RB do anything against them this season.  The Titans on the other hand just ran through the Chiefs and are expected to do the same this week against the Colts faulty front seven.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Streets of San Francisco (and Surviving Oakland)

Back to the grind.  The day job got kind of hot and heavy the past week and as soon as things settled down, I was off to Oakland to see my beloved Jets.  I was hoping for a better result than their previous West Coast swing to San Diego in Week 3, but alas, it was not meant to be.  I'm not sure if it's the time change or what, but it looked like the Jets never woke up for the game.

We stayed in San Francisco, easily the best city on the West Coast (sorry Seattle) after landing in Oakland and taking the BART over the night before the game.  An impromptu pub crawl was in order, which in hindsight, was perhaps not the greatest of ideas.  Morning quickly came, with barely an ounce of sleep and I found myself back on the BART heading for the Coliseum wearing my Joe Klecko jersey.  

After the first drive, which the Jets went four wide with no huddle and marched right down the field to settle for a field goal, not much good else happened for the ivory and green.  I hope someone in Gotham is petitioning the league for the Jets to wear the throwback Titan's jerseys every week.  I'm sure they'll be wearing them next week at home against the Chiefs.

But back to gameday.  If you've never been to Oakland, the stories you've heard are completely true.  It's a miserable city.  Disgusting.  Dirty.  Graffiti everywhere.  Trash everywhere.  And just from the looks of it, you would automatically assume that its residents are just as miserable, disgusting and dirty.  But that's where you'd be wrong.

My interaction with the Oakland faithful lasted roughly 6 hours on a chilly, yet sunny Sunday afternoon.  Yes, the Coliseum was filled with the costume wearing, self loathing fans of Raider Nation.  But these fans were completely happy tailgating outside a stadium where their team has more often than naught let them down.  On this day however, they would leave happy and by virtue of their victory, I was able to leave alive.  And so ended my excursion to Oakland.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Waiver Wire Fodder With Wellington

theendzoneview.com proudly presents our new correspondent: Mr. Turk Wellington. Turk is a fantasy football vet and will assist you every week with your waiver wire pickups.

Back to the grind. The bye week blues are upon us, but there's no need to cry. Turk is here to get you through.


QB's
Last week I listed three: Bulger, Orton, Huard. Orton and Bulger were both recommended while Huard was deemed unworthy of your time. Well my friends, I had the QB's spot on (with Bulger a PUSH). If Orton wasn't scooped on last week, make sure you claim him this week. Don't go and do anything foolish like starting him every week, but with the right matchup, he can be used. The jury is still out on Bulger as we'll see this week how he fares in DC. Huard is now out of the lineup in favor of a now healthy Brodie Croyle but its not a matter of if, but when we will see him again. Now onto this weeks options:

Gus Frerotte, Vikings
Did you notice what Kyle Orton did to the Lions this week? You can expect the same kind of game from the 37 year old Vikings QB this week. Frerotte is by no means a long term solution but if you need a QB this week, he's your man
This Week: B+ (vs Lions), Season: D

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers
You can keep him down, but you can't keep him out, or something like that. With Griese knocked out of last week's contest, the starting gig is ripe for the picking. Garcia had some issues with the Panthers last year so don't expect much, especially with Galloway still out. And with Gruden calling the shots, the term "job security" doesn't mean jack in Tampa
This Week: D (vs. Panthers), Season: D


RB's
I advised to pick up Deuce, but not to use him this week which was a good call. I said not to bother with Rudi Johhnson or Cedric Benson and while I thought I may be wrong on one of them, I didn't expect it to be Benson. Chris Perry is playing himself right out of a job and if Cedric Benson shows any signs of life against a suspect Jets run defense, he can take the job and run with it. I didn't recommend Mwelde Moore for last week or the season, and if you didn't pick him up and play him last week (over 100 total yards), don't waste your time.  Willie Parker is back. This weeks options:

Cedric Benson, Bengals
see above
This Week: B (@ Jets), Season: C

Michael Pittman, Broncos
If he isn't already on somebody's roster he will be this week. Pittman looks by far to be the best running back Shanahan has in the stable and now with Selvin Young missing this week's game, Pittman has shown enough versatility to warrant Shanahan's trust and yours. This may be just the beginning of Pittman's increased value this year. Get him while you can, if you can.
This Week: B- (Jaguars), Season: B


WR's
Everybody's favorite week late waiver wire pick, Lance Moore, disappointed many many fantasy owners last week with his 30 yard performance. I gave him a B+ for his matchup, so I'll apologize for that. This week's options aren't nearly as good, so do with them what you wish:

Craig Davis, Chargers
Chris Chambers hurt is ankle and won't be playing this week so Craig Davis will draw the start in his place. Do not, I repeat, do not expect Davis to play like Chris Chambers. Chambers has been playing out of his mind, recording something like a 20 YPC average and a TD every game. He's been unreal. And it's unreal to think Davis can step into those shoes. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will benefit from Chamber's absence way more than Davis will.
This Week: D (vs Patriots), Season: F

Brandon Stokely, Broncos
Can Stokely re-emerged as the essential slot receiver he once was with Eddie Royal out? Maybe for this week, but I'll assume that the Jaguars won't be playing 15 yards back on him from the 10 yard line on a 1st and goal like the Bucs did last week. So don't get too excited. Still, it's the high flying Broncos and after two off weeks Cutler should find his mojo again.
This Week: B- (vs Jaguars), Season: C-

K
Taylor Mehlhaff, Saints
Usually, I don't pay too much mind to kickers, but I had my eye on this rookie during training camp and while he lost the pre-season battle to Gramatica, it's obvious he shouldn't had. Heck, he kicks in a dome for a high scoring team. Why not grab him?

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Random Week 5 Fantasy Thoughts

-Thought #1 - Dex better get it together. That start em/sit em this week was almost as embarrassing as an Al Davis press conference.

Titans 13 - Ravens 10
-I've been touting Chris Johnson as an every week starter regardless of opponent. I'll now amend that statement to say he's an every week starter "unless he plays the Ravens" (2o touches, 48 total yards)
-Why do you keep starting McGahee? LeRon McClain is the only dependable Raven in fantasy (51 yards, 1 TD)

Panthers 34 - Chiefs 0
-DeAngelo Williams had the game all Jonathan Stewart owners feared (148 total yards, 3 TD's). Right when JStew was looking like a dependable RB2, it's now back to the drawing board. If you own both, it's going to be a long season
-Jake Delhomme is a viable QB1 moving forward after two impressive weeks (236/2/1)
-largely because of the steady Steve Smith (96 yards) and the revival of Muhammad who is now a borderline WR2 (71 yards, 1 TD)
-Damon Huard imploded faster than the stock market. Brodie Croyle returns much to the dismay of Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe owners
-I didn't think it was possible for LJ to score 0 after blowing up the week before. Amazing.

Bears 34 - Lions 7
-I know it was recommended here and on other sites, but if you actually had the guts to start Kyle Orton, bravo (334/2/0)
-Not that you started any Bears WR's, but Orton spread the ball around giving them all decent but not great days although Hester did catch a TD
-Yes, Matt Forte is a must start and regardless of that, I'm sure you started him against the Lions. While the yardage was pedestrian (61 total yards), the TD's made the day (1 rushing/1 receiving)
-Why didn't you sell high on Calvin Johnson two weeks ago?
-Why did you draft Jon Kitna?
-For some reason I thought the firing of Matt Millen would have rejuvenated the team, but then I realized Millen is the one responsible for the guys on the field

Falcons 27 - Packers 24
-Michael Turner finally had a great day on the road and on grass quelling fears he was only startable on turf and at home (122 yards, 1 TD)
-the future is bright for dynasty owners of Matt Ryan (194/2/1) and Roddy White (132, 1 TD)
-Aaron Rodgers is a certified fantasy stud as he winged the ball around the field with a busted wing (313/3/1)
-Ryan Grant broke out of his slump, but still was far from impressive amassing only 83 yards on 18 carries.

Colts 31 - Texans 27
-The Colts aren't back, they just got lucky my friends. We'll see if this win sparks them.
-Manning wasn't impressive, but we'll take it (247/2/1)
-Reggie Wayne always seems to be in the right place at the right time and made a crazy one handed catch for his TD to seal his great day (97 yards, 1 TD)
-If not for the TD, Addai was the invisible man (only 74 total yards)
-Dallas Clark re-emerged after a slow injury filled start to the season (83 yards)
-No Matt Schaub in this one, but Rosenfels looked for AJ early and often (131 yards, 1 TD)
-Steve Slaton should have been in all active lineups this week (93 yards, 2 TD) but he was pecularily absent in the passing game
-Something to keep your eye on - Ahman Green had 12 carries compared to 16 for Slaton, but Slaton got the goal line work

Dolphins 17 - Chargers 10
-Ronnie Brown is for real. Even when the Dolphins didn't employ the "Wildcat" formation, Brown ran with conviction and confidence (125 yards, 1 TD)
-This is two poor outings in a row for Philip Rivers (159/1/0)
-But Chris Chambers keeps on catching TD's (30 yards, 1 TD), but that streak may end next week due to a late injury
-LT2's toe is obviously bothering him again (57 total yards)

Giants 44 - Seahawks 6
-Eli is a definite QB1 (267/2/0)
-It was Brandon Jacobs Day in the Giants backfield (136 yards, 2 TD's)
-Domenick Hixon filled in admirably for the suspended Burress (102 yards, 1 TD), but next week's it's back to obscurity
-Matt Hasselbeck got Bobby Engram back, but was not effective (105/0/1)
-Bobby Engram returned and snagged 8 balls for 61 yards
-Julius Jones toughed out a decent game against a formidable D (74 total yards) especially considering the game was out of reach early

Redskins 23 - Eagles 17
-Clinton Portis WAS the Redkskins offense (145 yards, 1 TD)
-Santana Moss was held catchless in a disappointing game
-Chris Cooley had his best game to date thanks to a Randle El TD pass (109 yards, 1 TD)
-Brian Westbrook gave it a go, and looked great on the first drive, but then suffered broken ribs putting his participation next week in jeopardy (84 total yards, 1 TD)
-Donovan McNabb (196/0/0) and the passing game was non existent although Reggie Brown did lead WR's with 84 yards

Broncos 16 - Buccaneers 13
-it looked like a shootout on paper, but turned into a defensive battle as Jay Cutler ended the day with a ho-hum 227 yards and only 1 TD
-Eddie Royal sprained an ankle giving way for Brandon Stokely to be a factor (52 yards, 1 TD)
-Selvin Young led the RB's with 10 carries, but Pittman got 6 and Hall had 5 making all of them unstartable
-Brian Griese was knocked out of the game and may not play next week leaving Jeff Garcia to grab the reigns once again
-Warrick Dunn had one more carry than Earnest Graham which is a continued concern for Graham owners

Cardinals 41 - Bills 17
-after a turnover plagued game last week, Warner rebounded nicely (250/2/0)
-with Boldin out, Fitzgerald predicatably (unless your Dex) took up the slack (52 yards, 2 TD)
-Boldin's replacement, Steve Breaston hauled in 7 catches for 77 yards
-the Cards run game is looking solid with both Edge (57 yards, 1 TD) and Hightower (37 yards, 2 TD's) finding the endzone in back to back weeks
-Trent Edwards was knocked out cold early as JP Losman came in to replace him. Besides his bomb to Lee Evans (1oo yards, 1 TD), he didn't do much right (220/1/1)
-Marshawn Lynch looks like a better real game back than fantasy back (only 65 total yards)

Cowboys 31 - Bengals 22
-typical Romo (176/3/1)
-Marion Barber was underhwhelming to say the least, especially with his huge workload (84 yards on 23 carries)
-Felix Jones on the other hand made the most of his opportunities (103 total yards, 1 TD)
-Jason Witten, Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton all recorded TD catches
-the Bengals snapped out of a funk with Carson Palmer whipping the ball around on a bum shoulder (217/2/1)
-both TD passes went to Housh (85 yards, 2 TD's) while Chad was left out in the cold (43 yards)
-Chris Perry suffered a game ending fumble and after receving only 3 more carries than newly signed Cedric Benson, has a tenous hold on his starting gig

Patriots 30 - Niners 21
-Randy Moss broke out of his mini-slump (111 yards, 1 TD)
-The Pats running game is all over the place: Morris 16 carries, Maroney 10 carries, Faulk 7, Jordan 5
-Welker had a quiet 8 catches for 73 yards
-JT OSullivan had another head scratching day (130/3/3) -Isaac Bruce grabbed two TD catches while Gore had the other one along with 78 total yards

Steelers 26 - Jaguars 21
-the Steelers went to the no huddle and Roethlisberger responded with his best game to date (309/3/1)
-Nate Washington, Hines Ward and Heath Miller all caught TD passes but Santonio Holmes missed out on the party
-Mwelde Moore played well in relief of Willie Parker and Mendenhall (116 total yards)
-MJD got a TD but only had 32 total yards
-Fred Taylor has not been effective at all this year (10 carries, 19 yards)
-Mike Walker led Jags receivers with 107 yards but may miss next weeks game due to a hamstring pull

Vikings 30 - Saints 27
-Adrian Peterson couldn't get going: 21 carries for 32 yards
-Chester Taylor threw a TD pass to TE Visancthe Shiancoe, but that was all either did in the game
-Drew Brees started the game hot with a TD pass to Henderson, but Saints turnovers killed every drive after
-Reggie Bush returned two punts for TD's but couldn't get going offensively (93 total yards)
-last week's waiver wire hero Lance Moore only finished with 31 yards receiving

Thursday, October 2, 2008

The Dex Files: Week 5 - Start em', Sit'em


I know what you're saying...How could you be so far off on your QB pick? Well, instead of bowing down in defeat, I will defend my choice of JaMarry Russell. First, he actually looked better than I anyone expected (22 of 37, 277 yds). Second, his 1 TD, should certainly have been 2 TDs. If JaMarry had taken off his ballet shoes and leaned forward six inches on the 2nd and 2, he crosses the plain with ease. Instead, he looked like Jim Rome against Jim Everett and curled up in a ball on the 1 yard line. Lastly, Lane Kiffen could not have sabotaged the last 20 seconds of the 1st half any better. No timeout, and no heave into the endzone. Instead, he goes for the high percentaged 76 yard field goal. You know, the one that you couldn't even kick the special code on a game of Madden. So I stand by my pick. I can't help stupidity. And now, I want to present you with a letter that I Fed-Ex'd to Lane.....ok, too far. As for Brees- just a big miss. Who would have known Lance Moore would explode.

The rest of the picks were above average. Forte - A+ (exact yardage - 85 yds), Scheffler A (30 yds), Tony G - B (47 yds, 1 td), Hines Ward B (57 yds). Lets take a look at week 5.

QB
Start'em
John Kitna, Detroit vs Chicago - 300 YDs, 3 TDs and 1 INT
St. Loses is on a bye so there is no lock this week. Don't ever say Dex is not gutsy. I like Kitna at home against their rivals. Don't be surpised if the one pick turns to two. Still Start him.


Sit'em
Kurt Warner, Arizona vs Buffalo - 260 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT
He may get sacked six times. I think he gets pulled this time around. If not, he throws the ball 60 times and you get your stupid 400 yds. But at least 3 picks come with it.

RB
Start'em
Matt Forte, Chicago @ Detroit
- 135 Total YDs and 2 TD
I see Forte bouncing back from my perfect prediction and running wild with the Lions. He will crack the century mark for the first time as a pro, while C. Benson snorts the sidelines in Dallas. This have a real back in Chicago now.

Other favorable Matchups - Stewart vs KC, Addai @ Houston

Sit'em
Larry Johnson, Kansas City @ Carolina - 80 Total YDs
I believe Chris Johnson is the easy pick to bust against the Baltimore D that crippled Mendanhall. However, I told you I am about making the tough choices. LJ is on fire. Watch his fire flame out against Carolina. Lock it up.

WR
Start'em
Calvin Johnson, Chicago @ Detroit, 140 yds and 2TD
On the receiving end of Kitna's strong game will be the next great receiver. I see two TDs for CJ this week, one short and one long.

Sit'em
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona vs Buffalo - 75 YDs
Hey, he can't go for 120 and a touch every week. Pick this week to sit him. Boldin is broken and Fitz will get triple covered at times. A 35 year old Bum running for his life is only funny on cops. Watch Warner get hammered about 15 times.

No Tight Ends this week. Shut up and watch football.

Dex

Early All Stud Team (Weeks 1- 4)

We're a quarter of the way through this fantasy season already.  My how time flies.  So let's take a look at the best of the best of the fantasy world.  If you're 4-0 or 3-1, you most likely have one or more of these guys.

QB - Jay Cutler, Broncos
For those that didn't want to target any of the big six QB's on draft day, Jay Cutler had the highest ceiling of any of the lower tier QB1's.  While those inklings have been realized, no one expected this.  Almost 1300 yards, 9 TD's and only 4 Ints.  That projects to a 5200/36/8 season and there's no signs of him slowing.  Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Saints

RB - Marion Barber, Cowboys
Brian Westbrook was atop this list after two weeks, but succumbed to an ankle injury which paved the way for Barber to lay claim as the most valuable RB.  Unfortunately, the Cowboy's game plan against the Redskins last week didn't utilize Barber in the least bit, but after the result was an embarrassing lost at home, that shouldn't be an issue moving forward.

RB - Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Frank Gore was a close consideration, but AP gets the nod here.  Despite his hamstrung 77 yard effort Week 3, AP is putting up consistent numbers every week and has avoided any remnants of a sophmore slump.  

WR - Brandon Marshall, Broncos
The guy missed the first week of the season and is currently the # 4 overall receiver.  Amazing.  The emergence of rookie Eddie Royal has done nothing but make Brandon Marshall that much more difficult to cover.  Baby TO has taken the next step and doesn't appear to be looking back.

WR - Santana Moss, Redskins
Not the Moss we thought it would be.  He's currently the # 2 receiver in fantasy land and while he may have difficulty maintaining his numbers over the course of the season, there's no end in sight for when this ride will end.

TE - Jason Witten, Cowboys
Talk about consistency.  His worst effort was 67 yards in week 3 which by comparison Kellen Winslow has yet to record 60 yards this season.  Witten is the cream of the crop and has officially overtaken Antonio Gates as the top tight end.

K - John Carney, Giants
The Giants are coming off a bye week, but the Giants replacement kicker is out averaging Matt Prater on a per game basis and might be out of a job next week.  Crazy.

D - Titans 
You don't get more consistent than the Titans D.  In real life or in fantasy.  All of those that wasted an early pick on the Vikings need not be reminded of their folly.

The Early All-Bust Team will follow later today.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Waiver Wire Fodder With Wellington

theendzoneview.com proudly announces the addition of our new correspondent: Mr. Turk Wellington. Turk is a fantasy football vet and will assist you every week with your waiver wire pickups. This article is a day late, but expect it weekly every Tuesday for the rest of the season.

It's hard work being this pretty. It's also hard work out there on that waiver wire. Don't let anybody tell you different. The waiver wire only has two benefits: short term and long term. You can work it for a bye week or injury fill in, selecting a player solely on this week's matchup. Or you can use it to fill up a weak roster spot with somebody you think can hold season long value.

The fateful mistake some fantasy owners make is jumping on a one week wonder (I'm looking at you Dante Rosario) and immediately sticking him into the starting lineup. You know who you are. More often than not, these moves fail worse than a Herm Edwards 2 minute drill. You want to be ahead of the curve, not behind it my friends. So as I list the top waiver wire picks for this week, I'll do so giving each player two grades. One grade for this week's matchup, and one grade for season long value. You can choose which one better suits you.

QB's
Marc Bulger, Rams
After being dumped quicker than Jennifer Aniston, Marc Bulger is back baby. We'll see if the coaching change and the emergence of Donnie Avery does for him. The loss of Randy McMichael may hurt on the surface, but the Rams may be better off with some blocking tight ends instead of trying to please McMike's desire to be involved in the offense.
This Week: NA (bye), Season: C-

Damon Huard, Chiefs
LJ in the backfield, a top WR target (Bowe) and receiving TE (Gonzalez). Sounds great on paper. Huard's at best a low end QB2 and bye week fill in depending on the weekly matchup.
This Week: D (@ Car), Season: D+

Kyle Orton, Bears
Mr. Jack Daniels himself torched the Eagles for 3 TD passes. Are you really going to consider picking him up? Well, normally I would call you a moron, but by all means, pick him and start him this week if you must.
This Week: B+ (@ Lions), Season: C-

RB's
Deuce McAllister, Saints
What year is this again? It doesn't matter. Deuce has deemed Pierre Thomas as useless as a condom in Lindsay Lohan's purse. He showed last week that he can get it done. I doubt anyone held onto him this long, but if so, kudos to you good sir.
This Week: C (vs Vikings), Season: B

Rudi Johnson, Lions
What year is this again? Every rookie RB seems to be blowing up, except Kevin Smith who, evidently just blows. Still, don't drop him quite yet.
This Week: D (vs Bears), Season: D (probably won't keep job for long with tough schedule ahead)

Mwelde Moore/Najeh Davenport, Steelers
-Mendenhall is gone for the year, Parker is gone for who knows how long, so that leaves Mwelde Moore and newly re-signed Najeh Davenport in the backfield along with some practice squad guy. Feel free to grab Moore this week if you need a starter, but Davenport will probably have more value by the end of the year, even after the return of Fast Willie.
This Week: C- (@ Jaguars), Season: C+

Cedric Benson, Bengals
-why would you want to put yourself through the heartache. Let's move on.

WR's
Lance Moore, Saints
-Unless you have a top three waiver claim, you missed him. Sucks to be you.
This Week: B+ (vs Vikings), Season: C+ (unless Colston has a setback)

Kevin Walter, Texans
-Probably one of the most underrated wide receivers, but it takes some real cajones to pick the right week to play him.
This Week: B (vs Colts), Season: C

Donnie Avery, Rams
-the second coming of Dante Hall? Is that a good thing? If you have the room, pick him up and stash him, and see what happens. Keep expectations low and you'll be happy.
This Week: F (bye), Season: D

TE's
The tight end pool is probably thinner than Amy Winehouse right now in a lot of leagues. If you don't have a top 7 (Witten, Gates, Winslow, Cooley, Daniels, Scheffler, Gonzo), good luck to you.
.
See you next week my friends,
Turk