Free Agent Kevin Jones will sign with the Bears or the Steelers today
Former Lions running back Kevin Jones started yesterday by telling Sirius Radio that he would wait for the right situation before signing with a team. Evidently the right situation has come along because later that day, his agent named the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers as the finalists for the Kevin Jones sweepstakes. Either destination would leave fantasy prognosticators in a murky predicament, but both situations will provide Kevin Jones a better opportunity than he would have had if he had considered the Buccaneers as was falsely reported last week.
So in the end, Jones will find himself in a city that fields a predominantly run first team. Let's take a look to see how Kevin Jones arrival would affect the fantasy value of the running backs of each team.
Chicago Bears
The Bears to be honest are probably the most likely to land a veteran running back prior to training camp and Kevin Jones is the best of the lot (Travis Henry, Shaun Alexander, etc). While it appeared that Lovie Smith was willing to roll the dice with a rookie running back as his primary, it sounds like the Bears are doing the wise thing. Matt Forte was shaping up to be a nice mid round sleeper pick with a current ADP somewhere in the 5th or 6th round. If Kevin Jones signs, his name alone will be enough to hop Forte in drafts, probably finding himself drafted slightly above where Forte is being selected now. Forte meanwhile would probably improve his sleeper status by dropping two rounds. The other Adrian Peterson would find himself immediately undraftable. It will be interesting to see what the Bears will do if they don't land Jones.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Did you hear that sound? That was the shriek of every Rashard Mendenhall dynasty owner upon reading the news of Kevin Jones. While long term it probably won't hurt as much since Jones has obviously had some health issues, Mendenhall's chance to be a significant player in this years fantasy world would definitely take a hit. Willie Parker is currently being selected as a mid RB3 and should be able to hold his value despite the addition of Kevin Jones although he would certainly drop a round once the news hits. Jones' value in Pittsburgh would be harder to determine. We would have to assume that Kevin Jones would dominate 3rd down carries earlier in the season, then give way to Mendenhall. Mendenahall is currently being drafted in the 6th to 7th round range, a spot that would be taken over by Jones. Mendenhall could probably be had a round later.
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3 comments:
Excellent post. We just discovered your blog through ArmchairGM. You do nice work.
Kevin Jones will have a great year. Why? Because the Lions let him go and they are cursed/doomed to fail. Free from their cloud of despair, he will excel AND remain healthy for the first time ever!
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Well you know KJ will be motivated (especially when he plays the Lions twice) so it will be interesting to see how he does in Chicago.
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Thanks for the link! Of course we just found out that our URL may be changing soon. We'll keep you updated.
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