Since his 2004 breakout year, Antonio Gates has enjoyed his status as the first TE taken in fantasy drafts. In 2005, he put up nearly 25% more fantasy points than his next counterpart leaving owners no choice but to move him up their draft boards the following year where he rarely made it out of the third round. In 2006 his fantasy scoring, while steady, was actually only 12% higher than the rest of the field and in 2007 he was upended as the King of Tight Ends by the career year of the Cowboys Jason Witten.
The combination of the King being knocked off his throne and a complicated off-season toe surgery has opened the door for fantasy owners to select Witten as the top tight end with confidence. But as we question the value of Antonio Gates, we must question the value of the tight end position as a whole and decide whether or not taking a top tier tight end is wiser than waiting until the later rounds to do so.
In 2004 the disparity in the fantasy points produced by tight ends is quite large:
The total difference between TE1 and TE12 = 165.9 pts
In 2005 the gap reduces but it's still evident that there is a big discrepancy among the talent at the position:
The total difference between TE1 and TE12 = 125.81
2006 bridged the gap incredibly closer, nearly half of the point difference of 2004.
The total difference between TE1 and TE12 = 86.0 pts
Beginning with the year Antonio Gates dominated the position, we can see how tenuous his stranglehold truly was as the number one tight end. 2007 brought about a repeat of the 2006 numbers, with the difference between TE1 and TE12 staying steady at 88.9 pts
In the end, what can we learn from all of this? There are some people that will obviously feel more comfortable taking a TE early, namely Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, but for those that wait and for the likes of Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler or Vernon Davis to fall into their laps, they'll benefit from knowing they didn't burn an early pick on a position that is truly full of parity.
The combination of the King being knocked off his throne and a complicated off-season toe surgery has opened the door for fantasy owners to select Witten as the top tight end with confidence. But as we question the value of Antonio Gates, we must question the value of the tight end position as a whole and decide whether or not taking a top tier tight end is wiser than waiting until the later rounds to do so.
In 2004 the disparity in the fantasy points produced by tight ends is quite large:
The total difference between TE1 and TE12 = 165.9 pts
In 2005 the gap reduces but it's still evident that there is a big discrepancy among the talent at the position:
The total difference between TE1 and TE12 = 125.81
2006 bridged the gap incredibly closer, nearly half of the point difference of 2004.
The total difference between TE1 and TE12 = 86.0 pts
Beginning with the year Antonio Gates dominated the position, we can see how tenuous his stranglehold truly was as the number one tight end. 2007 brought about a repeat of the 2006 numbers, with the difference between TE1 and TE12 staying steady at 88.9 pts
In the end, what can we learn from all of this? There are some people that will obviously feel more comfortable taking a TE early, namely Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, but for those that wait and for the likes of Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler or Vernon Davis to fall into their laps, they'll benefit from knowing they didn't burn an early pick on a position that is truly full of parity.
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1 comments:
I don't know, if you can get a better combo out of getting a top tier TE, then a decent WR3...I think it is better than getting your WR3 first, then settling for a lower tier TE.
Does that make any sense?
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