Do You Believe in the 3rd Year WR?

Everyone's heard of the 3rd year WR rule.  The rule that states "when a young wide receiver shows promise his rookie season, then builds on that with a solid sophmore campaign, he will automatically break out his 3rd year".   "3rd year" wide receivers are usually awarded with the sleeper tag on that basis alone.  

Take 2007's top sleeper 3rd WR's as examples: Vincent Jackson of the Chargers and Reggie Brown of the Eagles. 

Vincent Jackson had an uneventful rookie season with San Diego, then took a big leap forward his second year posting a nearly 500 yard receiving season but snagging 6 TD's.  He was primed for a breakout 3rd year season and rewarded his owners with a sub-par 600 yard, 3 TD year.  In fact, he was so underwhelming the Chargers thought it was a good idea to actually trade for a true #1 WR by obtaining Chris Chambers.

Reggie Brown had breakout year written all over him, but he too failed to live up to the 3rd year hype.  He shot out of the gates his rookie year with almost 600 yards receiving and 4 TD's.  On queue, his second year he took the leap posting over 800 yards receiving and scoring 8 TD's.  His 3rd year season = 780 yards and 4 TD's, aka, he came crashing back to earth.

The other prominent 3rd year receivers that failed to produce: Roydell Williams of the Titans, Matt Jones of the Jaguars, Nate Washington of the Steelers, Chris Henry of the Bengals (ok, he was suspended half the year) and DJ Hackett of the Seahawks (sure, he had a couple of nice games but couldn't stay healhty).  

There is a 3rd year receiver that had some mild success in 2007 and deserves to be set apart from the disappointments above but didn't quite have a year good enough to be mentioned with the man amongst the boys below.  Roddy White of the Falcons did post a 1200 yard, 5 TD season for the lowly Falcons in 2007 and does seem to have the potential to break out even further once the QB in Atlanta is settled.

When you get down to it, only one wide receiver was able to keep the hype of the 3rd Year WR going: Braylon Edwards of the Browns

Braylon Edwards took a commanding leap his 3rd year and vaulted to the top of the WR rankings.  A rookie year of 500/3, then a sophmore year of 879/6 set up his monster 2007 of nearly 1300 yards and 16 TD's.  He took the 3rd Year WR to the next level and has set the bar high for this year's class.  

2008 3rd Year WR's

Marques Colston, Saints - Colston is probably the obvious pick to take the Edwards leap but he's already considered a top 10 WR, so h0w much further can he go?

Greg Jennings, Packers - He had his "3rd year" breakout one year too soon and most likely peaked last season.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos - Marshall was well on his way to have an Edwards-esque breakout this season and still may if his legal troubles don't get in the way.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers - no one is really sleeping on him, so he can't be labeled a sleeper, but he could better his 2007 numbers

The rest of the list have showed little their first two seasons, either due to lack of opportunity or skills, but if you want to believe in the 3rd Year Myth, these are the guys you should be rooting for:

Demetrius Williams- Baltimore, the big deep threat has failed to produce consistently

Jeff Webb - Kansas City, currently battling Devan Darling to start.  Devan Darling!

Sinorice Moss - NY Giants, seems to be lost in the shuffle on a WR heavy Giants squad

Maurice Stovall - Buccaneers, tons of untapped potential and wasted promise may get yet another shot to disappoint this year

Ben Obomanu - Seahawks - currently battling Courtney Taylor for the slot

Chad Jackson - Patriots, actually if anybody will come out of this mess to give 3rd year WR credence again, Jackson is the horse to bet on.

Lance Moore - Saints, fighting for a roster spot

Brad Smith - Jets, wasted gadget player that has yet to fulfill his WR promise